· Forecast for 11,000 new jets & turboprops valued at USD 650 billion
· Global passenger volume to grow 3.2% annually (CAGR)
· The need for flexibility, complementing narrow-body aircraft, is driving demand in the up-to-150-seat segment
Embraer has published its 20-year Market Outlook for commercial aircraft deliveries through 2042, during a press briefing at the Paris Air Show today.
The Market Outlook identifies the demand for new jet and turboprop aircraft with up to 150 seats over the next two decades. It also presents analysis of global influences and trends in six world regions.
World passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, is expected to return to 2019 levels by 2024 as a result of a prolonged pandemic recovery, geopolitics, and changes in industry dynamics. Global RPKs will grow 3.2% annually through 2042.
In his Market Outlook introductory message, Embraer Commercial Aviation President and CEO, Arjan Meijer, highlights the importance of aircraft in the up-to-150 seat category to maintain airline network connectivity. He also notes how remote working and a greening industry will affect the way we will travel and the demand for new aircraft.
The report cites three key trends shaping future demand for travel and aircraft:
(i) Fragmentation of the Global Economy – regionalization of businesses and supply chains will alter how goods and people move
(ii) Social Revolution – a remote workforce will prompt air service in new communities
(iii) Market effects of sustainability – the drive to sustainability will affect demand, as will the cost of new fuels and new technology, this is likely to increase the cost of flying over time.
Other trends include the need for fleet flexibility to cope with an uncertain and changing demand, mostly through narrow-body complementation, and the growing popularity of crossover narrow-body all-cargo jets.
Highlights of the 20-Year Commercial Market Outlook – By the Numbers
Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats
Market value of all new aircraft
USD 650 billion
Annual RPK regional growth rate – ranked
4.4% Asia Pacific (includes China)
4.1% Latin America
3.2% Middle East
2.2% North America
RPK share by the end of 2042
42% Asia Pacific
38% Europe + North America
Jet deliveries – 8,790 (% share) – by region
2,690 North America (30.6%)
2,270 Asia Pacific (25.8%)
2,390 Europe/CIS (27.2%)
780 Latin America (8.9%)
340 Middle East (3.9%)
320 Africa (3.6%)
Turboprop deliveries – 2,210 (% share) – by region
910 Asia Pacific (41.0%)
450 Europe/CIS (20.2%)
410 North America (18.5%)
210 Africa (9.5%)
180 Latin America (8.1%)
50 Middle East (2.7%)
For the complete version of the 2023 Market Outlook, including analysis and regional synopses for each of the six world regions, go to: https://www.embraercommercialaviation.com/marketoutlook/