Our 20-Year Market Forecast

We’ve just published our 2018 Market Outlook. The report presents how we see demand evolving for new airplanes in the sub 150-seat category over the next 20 years and the factors that will influence that demand.

The statistics brought in by the analysis are remarkable. To cite one of the highlights, there were 7% more commercial airline city-pairs established in 2017 than the year before. That’s the highest growth since 2004. What’s even more impressive is that nearly half of those new markets are being flown by aircraft with 150 or fewer seats.

Regarding the economic environment, the data shows that the long windfall enjoyed by the industry over the past few years is starting to fade, and Airlines need to discipline for the downside of a cycle. Already as profits erode and revenues are obliterated by rising costs, Airlines need to strive for the right balance between capacity additions and sustainable yields.

These points reinforce the relevance of Embraer airplanes, particularly the E2s, which are optimized to deliver profitability per seat through right pricing and competitive cost structure, coupled with the widest range of market opportunities among all seat segments. We’re confident we’re well-positioned to maintain our leadership in the segment up to 150 seats, which will demand – globally – 10,550 aircraft in the next two decades.

Talking about deliveries – another notable point in this forecast is in the equilibrium of Aircraft requirement throughout the regions. North America, Europe/CIS and Asia Pacific represent – each one – around 1/3 of the global demand for the segment.

Our region-by-region analysis in our Market Outlook explains where and why crossover jets are in such demand all over the world. These airplanes have all the performance capabilities, cabin comfort, premium seating, wired cockpits, and range to replace turboprops and both larger and smaller jets. Moreover, they can do it all with better economics.

Twenty years from now, there’ll be nearly 16,000 airplanes in service in the sub 150-seat category. That’s an impressive 76% increase from the current 9,000. And that’s strength, in numbers.

John

Download the Embraer 2018 Market Outlook here.